Transit agencies across the world are facing unprecedented challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic. Operators must schedule for new and uncertain travel demand while winning back riders and getting them to where they need to go, safely. That’s no easy task given that most mass transit systems were designed in direct opposition to the tenets of social distancing. Typically, transit operators’ mandates are to increase ridership by moving people as efficiently and compactly as possible.
This challenge is coupled with the related issue of the financial sustainability of those transit agencies that rely most heavily on farebox revenues, given the drastic falls in ridership due to the economic shutdown and health concerns. Even agencies that get a more significant portion of their funding from other sources such as taxes are impacted by the economic slowdown.
Looking ahead, agencies will have difficult choices to make in adapting services to an uncertain future. What short, medium and long-term strategies are needed for the safe return to operations? And in the longer term, what sort of a service will populations require?
This article discusses the immediate challenges of post lockdown, and the longer-term role and response of transit agencies as the lifeblood of cities.
The role of mass transit
The stakes are high, economically, socially and environmentally. Historically, the development of cities has been intertwined with the development of their mass transit systems. For dense urban centers to recover and reclaim their roles as hubs of economic activity, culture, and education, they will need public transport systems to be sustained and kept healthy. There are important equity considerations too: without public transportation, many will be simply shut out of opportunities.
While the challenges are complex, inaction now could reshape demand for travel in unsustainable ways. Largescale mode shifts from transit to personal vehicles would aggravate the climate crisis and, in many cities, negatively impact the quality of life in the public realm – not to mention the fact that the downtown core of many cities simply can’t absorb significant increases in personal vehicle traffic.
As worrying as this scenario may seem, it doesn’t need to be this way. On the flipside, there is also an opportunity to use this enforced moment of pause to shape a more sustainable transport system that is even more integrated with the life of the city.
The scale of the challenge
In the short-term, public health considerations are impacting capacity and operations. Shelter-in-place or stay-at-home requirements caused unprecedented reductions in ridership, nearly overnight. Patronage reductions of up to 90 percent were seen in some countries.
Even as workplaces start to open again, ridership will not rebound to pre-coronavirus levels until people feel safe using public transit. For the foreseeable future, those who are able to work remotely are likely to do so, denting peak hour travel. This has major implications for scheduling, which has traditionally been geared around the rush-hour commute. Meanwhile, transit must continue to serve those who don’t have the ability to work from home and don’t have other options for getting to work, including many essential workers.
In the meantime, new social distancing standards mean services must operate at reduced levels. In the UK, for example, the six-foot spacing government recommendation, assuming it could be enforced, would reduce London Underground’s service capacity to 15 percent of normal rush hour levelsBBC News: Coronavirus: Tube numbers to be 'severely restricted'
. Getting passengers on and off trains and buses while adhering to social distance recommendations raises its own challenges, as will managing the entry into stations. Face masks, gloves, and even in some places no-talking rules may become standard requirements – for passengers as well as staff. Transit agencies from Los Angeles to South Korea are already instituting new behavior protocols for passengers.
In addition to serving commuters, public transit helps people get to a wide range of destinations, from cultural events to educational institutions, entertainment, retail, food and beverage, health care and sports. In some places, despite no reputable studies linking public transit to the transmission of the virus, official guidance to avoid public transport may dissuade people from non-essential activities, further delaying the return of the city’s economy.
At the same time, the financial outlook for transit agencies is uncertain. Farebox revenue, along with dedicated taxes, has fallen steeply, with less people travelling due to the economic shutdown. Some transit agencies have been allowing free rides to remove interactions with ticket vending booths and operators. To make up for this, some transit operators may require more financial assistance from governments or alternative funding strategies – at a time when there are many demands on the public purse.
There are also environmental implications to consider. In China, reports from the major city of Guangzhou found public transport usage had recovered to one third of pre-pandemic rates during March. Another third of users turned to private vehicle use, which is seen as safer, resulting in an uptick in car salesBloomberg: Car Boom in Wuhan Holds Out Hope for Post-Lockdown Recovery
, while the remaining third turned to active transport such as walking or cycling. If a trend towards replacing public transit with more private automobile use were to continue, it would have major implications for pollution and air quality in cities. As traffic levels increase and roadway capacity is exceeded, shifting transit trips to driving trips would be unsustainable. The pandemic has highlighted the link between air quality and health and few of us would wish to return to pre-pandemic emissions levels.
