Transportation: the future is electric

A growing bedrock of support

Before coronavirus, lower costs and environmental concerns were already leading to a rising number of electric vehicles on our roadways. The International Council on Clean Transportation estimated that the number of electrified fleet vehicles in the United States rose to over two million in 2018, a 70 percent increase over the past year, and the International Energy Agency forecasts that by 2030 we’ll have 125 million electric cars on the road globally. Vehicles such as transit buses are at the forefront of this trend, where cities and states are taking the lead at converting their fleets.

Electric vehicles do not produce greenhouse gases, so widespread use reduces emissions. This is an important consideration as the transportation sector contributes 20 percent of greenhouse gases in the U.S.. Emission reduction can also help cities meet social equity and environmental goals by improving air quality in lower income neighborhoods that often house vehicle terminals. 

Pushed by citizen concerns, several cities across the U.S., including Los Angeles and New York, have released “green new deals” focused on carbon reduction. As a first step, these programs center around municipal vehicle electrification, incorporating transit and school buses as well as service and fleet vehicles such as garbage trucks and police vehicles.

Transit agencies are also committing to electric transportation with nine out of ten of the country’s largest transit agencies studying or planning transitions by 2040. Actions are also being taken statewide. The California Air Resource Board has mandated that all buses purchased in the state after 2030 should be electric, and it’s expected that all municipal buses will be electric by 2040.

Another driver is cost reductions through technology advances. A significant reduction in the cost of transit vehicle batteries improved accessibility for transit and fleet operators, sparking markets for electric buses and fleet vehicles. A Carnegie Mellon University study found that battery-electric buses are cost-competitive with liquefied natural gas, compressed natural gas, and hybrid diesel buses and the American Public Transportation Association has found that total cost of ownership of electric buses are equal to diesel buses for vehicles with utilization of at least 37,000 miles/year. Additionally electric buses have lifecycle-cost advantages over internal-combustion engines because they convert energy into motion more effectively and have fewer moving parts, making them cheaper to power and maintain over time.

Technologies pushing the boundaries

Even as current charging infrastructure develops, utilities and transportation agencies are continuing to advance innovations such as solid-state batteries that enable faster charging in addition to smart systems that connect vehicles and grids, which can improve grid reliability and power management.

The industry is exploring numerous new technologies to improve energy management. Among these are: smart charging systems for fleet facilities that optimize charging patterns and minimize energy costs, peak shaving strategies that use energy storage to reduce demand charges; microgrid technology that promotes and creates resilience; and, facility power generation that offsets power needs while providing resilience. Future technology may even include dynamic wireless charging that enables vehicles to charge on the roadway without even having to slow down.

Another rising technology termed ‘vehicle-to-grid’ could also generate significant revenue for transit agencies creating thousands of dollars of revenue per year. At The Navy Yard in Philadelphia, AECOM is studying how vehicle-to-grid and other emerging electrification [BA5] technologies could be integrated into the district’s emerging and growing micro-grid.

So how long will this really take?

Over the past decade we’ve seen electric cars go from novelty to normal. Transit agencies are starting to make similar transitions. Transit vehicle conversion will occur gradually as buses have a 10- to 15-year useful life and transit agencies replace roughly 15 percent of buses annually. Agencies are using this lead-time to plan, particularly considering charging methods even as they work with utilities to negotiate electricity rates, but many agencies nationally have committed to being fully electric by 2040.

As with personal cars, fueling is a significant part of electric bus and fleet vehicle planning. Transit agencies have myriad charging options including catenary wires for rapid charging on-route layovers, slow charging at bus depots, or pads embedded at bus stops that enable charging while passengers board or exit at stops or at bus depots. Selections will vary, based on energy needs related to such factors as usage, energy tariffs, route and route elevation and climate changes. While agencies will be challenged to balance charging options with operational needs and costs, those working with utility and private partners will also find opportunities to develop public-private partnership projects that can accelerate adoption.

In short, developing a comprehensive charging network is a complex and costly affair, and advancement will come in patches, likely led by fleet vehicle planning. Growing demand is likely to fuel investment, which in turn will usher in a better quality of life for communities across the United States.

William Haas, Steven Hall, Suzanne Murtha and Veronica Siranosian contributed to this article.